To My Fellow Pessimists

[gaiasdaughter]

If you are not a fellow pessimist, you are better off not reading this post. I'm not trying to bring others down, I'm just offering a possible version of How It All Ends for those of us who don't like the current odds.

You can add me to the pessimistic end of the spectrum. I try to stay positive, but honestly and truly, I don't see a way out of the mess we are in. If it were 'just' global warming, maybe we could solve the problem and go on with our lives. But global warming is really just one symptom of a much deeper problem.

The problem is two-fold, really. Part one is our addiction to growth -- population growth, economic growth, industrial growth. We have already out-grown the capacity of Mother Gaia to feed, clothe and house us all in a sustainable manner. There are just too many of us. The second part is our tendency to view the world as something to consume, and to consume within our own lifetimes. We take oil that is being rapidly depleted, make it into plastic bags, use them once and throw them away. We take metals that are more and more difficult to mine, make them into Coke cans, use them once and throw them away. We take fresh, clean water that is more and more scarce and use it to irrigate golf courses in the desert. We rob from the poor and give to the rich. We are not evil, heartless people -- we are just too busy, too preoccupied, too removed from the source of things to notice. We do it without understanding what it is we do.

So How Does It All End? Hank Wesselman's book, Spiritwalker, offers one possible answer. Hank Wesselman is an anthropologist who risked losing his credibility as a scientist to describe his visions of a time two thousand years in the future. According to Wesselman's visions, a sudden rise in sea levels somewhere around our time causes a disruption in international commerce and civilization grinds quickly to a halt. Without the constant flow of oil and gas to power our vehicles, they become ugly lawn ornaments. Imagine if grocery stores could no longer get shipments -- how long would our cities last?

But according to Wesselman, two thousand years in the future Gaia is burgeoning with life, and some of it human. The west coast of what used to be the United States of America is now populated by immigrants of Hawaiian ancestry, people who practice their traditional agrarian culture. The interior of America is populated by nomadic tribes of hunter-gatherers -- people who seem to be descendents of Inuits and French Canadians. These are stone age people who find joy in life and in each other. Lost is the ability to mine metals -- all the metals that can be mined without machinery are gone and there is no more machinery. Never again will civilization rise to the heights we have known. But the cultures that do exist are peaceful (for the most part), and in harmony, once again, with Gaia.

So did Wesselman actually see into the future? I have no way of knowing. But maybe he did. There are a lot of things out there that science can't explain -- not yet, anyway. Just because we can't see infrared rays doesn't mean they don't exist. Anyway, I find his vision to be one of harmony and beauty, and so I'd like to think that's how it all ends.

It's the middle part that won't look so pretty.

Then again, I could be wrong.

[gaiasdaughter]

Ben, I respect your right to your faith and hope you respect mine. I am not a Christian, so scripture does not sway me.

[776281]

Gaiasdaughter,
I too, am very pesimistic. There is no way the plannet can support 5 billion people with a changed climate and no fossel fuels.

I have yet to read Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies (The Book is ordered). He details population declines of 99% in societies that had a lesser change than we are about to face. Societies that failed to adapt.

We may even trigger a precambrian level extinction event, 90% of all species.

I hope I am wrong, it worth the effort for the chance that we can avoid the worst. A chance to turn 99% into 98%, rather than see 99% go to 100%. Maybe, if we as a society pull out all stops, we can save half the worlds population.

With green house gases at levels not seen in the last 800,000 years, temperatures have to go up, even if we stoped all anthropogenic emmissions now. The rate of temperature increase will be critical, will man and nature have time to adapt. Should we be getting ready to plant mangroves in the Antarctic Peninsular? Mangos around Lake Vostock? Your children will almost certainly see wheatfields in Northern Siberia.

[gaiasdaughter]

There is no way the plannet can support 5 billion people with a changed climate and no fossel fuels.

That's rather my conclusion as well. Actually, I was a lot more optimistic before I started doing research for Greg -- but the more I read, not only about global warming but about peak oil and the whole littany of ills overpopulation have exacerbated, the more pessimistic I have become. My brother lives in rural Mississippi, a region with a long growing season, rich soil, and (at least for now) plentiful rain. I asked him to be on the lookout for a piece of farmable land for sale. Now he thinks I'm a nut case.

We currently live on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico -- how's that for stupidity? We've been hit by three hurricanes since we moved here in 2004 and had half our house taken by one of them. We don't have soil, we have pure white sand -- which is beautiful but not conducive to growing fruits and vegetables, although I have had minimal success with frequent watering -- again, not the smartest way to go.

All that aside, you are right to remind us to keep up the good fight. Global warming is not an all or nothing event. Anything we can do to prevent things from getting worse is something we should do.

Let me know what you think about the book once you've read it.

[776281]

Gaiasdaughter,
Perhaps I shouldn't tell you what I think is going to happen to sea levels, what is already happening to Australia's farmlands what will probably happen to George Bush's lovely ranch. The 1930's dustbowl was nothing, Alaska might just about be perfect.

I have been suggesting SouthWest Tasmania (as long as the elevation is over 80m), with about the same response as you have been getting.

WA is getting a taste of the future, due to a major gas explosion we are short of power and gas. Businesses are putting workers onto enforced holidays and shutting down production. I'm OK I drive a diesel bus.

I dont quite understand the mathematics but the rise of the tropopause has seen the cut off lows that provide most of our rainfall move south. Even though rainfall is down, runoff into the dams is down much more. This winter seems wet (but isn't historically), but the rain is not penetrating very far into the wheat belt.

[gaiasdaughter]

776281,

You really do need a proper name! Anyway, the problems you cite are some of the reasons why I've fallen in love with earthships. They are self-contained homes that provide water (with as little as 8" of rainfall per year), energy, and (limited) greenhouse area for growing your own food. They do rely upon batteries and electric pumps and things that might no longer be available if worst case scenarios were to prevail, so my fantasy version would have back-up systems -- hand pumps, wood stoves, gravity fed hot water systems. If civilization were truly to collapse, the best we could hope for would be a place to survive long enough to learn to live without all our modern day 'necessities.'

Several years back, I found a series of books by Tom Brown, Jr. I even took a week-long class at his school in New Jersey. TBJ was taught ancient ways of living by an old Apache Indian who had never been absorbed into modern culture. With the skills Tom learned, he was able to walk into the wilderness naked and, not only survive, but thrive. He has written multiple books about his experiences learning the ways of 'Grandfather,' and more detailing the skills he learned along the way. He is obsessed with passing his knowledge along to as many as possible because he, too, fears where the future may be headed.

Right now, I'm stuck where I am. Property in our area has been for sale for four years now with no buyers -- partly due to hurricane fears and partly due to a very depressed housing market in the US. Besides which, my husband loves it here and it would take something major to convince him to relocate. So, I enjoy where I am and the comforts of my life, but I also make backup plans just in case.

[776281]

Gaiasdaughter,

James Hansen prepared a paper that suggested a 5 M rise over the next 100 years. With other scientists running scared of being academically destroyed it is no wounder that nature is so far ahead of predictions.

If there is something in the water at Goddard, I wish more would drink of it. Otherwise we are in for one nasty surprise after another. One woefully inadequate response after another washed away.

[goney3]

I watched the OSTM/Jason 2 satellite launch on early Friday morning (12:46 AM) from my front yard (Vandenberg Air Force Base is just 30 minutes away)... Jason 2, along with Jason 1, will continue to monitor the global rise in sea levels

So far though, Jason 1 has shown a doubling effect in rise, though the number was something like 3 cm?

[gaiasdaughter]

I watched the OSTM/Jason 2 satellite launch on early Friday morning (12:46 AM) from my front yard (Vandenberg Air Force Base is just 30 minutes away)... Jason 2, along with Jason 1, will continue to monitor the global rise in sea levels

Amazing photo! Thanks for sharing.

Still on the pessimistic side, I found this heading in one of the Spencer Weart essays:

beginning in the 1960s, several glacier experts warned that part of the Antarctic ice sheet seemed unstable. If the huge mass slid into the ocean, the sea level rise would wreak great harm, perhaps within the next century or two. While that seemed unlikely (although not impossible), by the 1980s scientists realized that global warming would probably raise sea level enough to damage populous coastal regions.

Can you imagine the havoc if a big chunk of the Antarctic ice sheet were to slide into the ocean? I'm thinking it would have to cause worldwide tsunamis and an immediate significant rise in sea levels. The science behind that possibility is still shaky, but it does give one pause.

[776281]

What does the future hold?

Hothouse Earth; New Scientist 21 June 2008 Once the South Pole was Green and crocodiles infested the Arctic. What the world was like last time it hotted up.

[gaiasdaughter]

Sounds like Gaia won't be the only one to survive -- crocodiles will, too!

[776281]

Joseph Tainter's book has arrived. Reading started.

[gaiasdaughter]

The winds of change : climate, weather, and the destruction of civilizations Linden, Eugene.

This one just came in at the local library. I know nothing of the author's reputation but I thought I would check it out and see what he has to say.

[776281]

I have changed my signature, I am not so sure that the planet wide life system will survive. Maybe the tropical arctic is the optimistic outcome.

When you see how far out science has been about ocean ice melt and then see predictions of evaporated oceans in a billion years it gets more than a little scary.

Of course I may be wrong, but I feel that the fight has moved from guaranteeing our survival to maintaining a chance at survival.

I feel Greg's sense of urgency, of action, before we pass another tipping point.

[gaiasdaughter]

Tony, I've been following your barrage of links -- you have been prolific as of late! It's incredible to me that there's anyone on this earth who still believes global climate disruption is not happening or who can deny that human beings are responsible. So it all comes down to this -- anthropogenic global warming is here. We need to make significant changes now or civilization, if not the earth itself, is in peril. That's it, pure and simple.

And yet, there is hope. To get myself out of the hole I've been in, I've started focusing on that hope. In seven months, the United States, the world's biggest offender, will have a new administration. If Barack Obama is elected President, one can hope that he will put men the likes of James Hansen, Joseph Romm and Al Gore in positions of power over the energy sector. With the price of oil going up, we may see policies not just espoused but actually implemented. Greg's book will be coming out at a critical juncture -- the new administration will be poised to move forward and heightened public concern could be the extra push needed. We will still have to deal with the climactic changes that have already been set in motion, but if we can cut emissions soon enough and deeply enough, we may avoid the worst case scenarios.

And then perhaps, just perhaps, mankind will awaken to the fragile perfection of the world on which we live. Perhaps then we will realize that the earth is not ours to be relentlessly exploited and that we either learn to live in concert with nature or destroy the only home we have. Perhaps then we will make a voluntary effort to bring our numbers down, replant the forests, renew the seas, and encourage the wild things to return once again.

It sounds like a fairy tale when I write it all out, but it could happen that way. Global climate change and peak oil might be twin catalysts for a shift to a whole new paradigm. One can always hope!

[776281]

With so much clear and visible evidence, how can people still deny?

Failure to act very soon and it will be too late. That action will have to be effective, some of the carbon offset provisions here in Australia have some significant holes. Once trees are planted and offsets claimed there is nothing to stop the land being sold and the trees cleared.

The clock is near midnight, hopefully before. I suspect geoengineering will happen and long before 2040. The more done now, the less devastating that geoengineering will have to be. There will be adverse consequences to geo engineering, but maybe they can be minimized.

I hope Greg's book sells well. But one critical reader could be all that matters, and maybe one critical line that that reader notes. We may never know but one of our little facts dug up, or comment used, could tip the balance.

It is surprising how much of even the heaviest science becomes understandable after reading several variations on the same subject. Still get way lost sometimes. It certainly has been a learning experience.

[gaiasdaughter]

From Greg's post:

EXAMPLE OF A PESSIMIST:
Vonnegut wrote this in 1988, as a letter to people in 2088:

“Now that we can discuss the mess we are in with some precision, I hope you have stopped choosing abysmally ignorant optimists for positions of leadership. They were useful only so long as nobody had a clue as to what was really going on--during the past seven mission years or so. In my time, they have been catastrophic as heads of sophisticated institutions with real work to do.

“The sort of leaders we need now are not those who promise ultimate victory over Nature through perseverance in living as we do right now, but those with the courage and intelligence to present to the world what appear to be Nature’s stern but reasonable surrender terms:
1. Reduce and stabilize your population.
2. Stop poisoning the air, the water, and the topsoil.
3. Stop preparing for war and start dealing with your real problems.
4. Teach your kids, and yourselves, too, while you’re at it, how to inhabit a small planet without helping to kill it.
5. Stop thinking science can fix anything if you give it a trillion dollars.
6. Stop thinking your grandchildren will be OK no matter how wasteful or destructive you may be, since they can go to a nice new planet on a spaceship. That is really mean and stupid.
7. And so on. Or else.”

It really is hard not to call someone a pessimist who wrote that he quit lecturing when he found himself saying to his audiences “that one day fairly soon we would all go belly-up like guppies in a neglected fishbowl. I suggested an epitaph for the whole planet, which was: ‘We could have saved it, but we were too darn cheap and lazy. . . .’ My Lord, I think I even said--in fact I know I said--that humanity itself had become an unstoppable glacier made of hot meat, which ate up everything in sight and then made love, and then doubled in size again.”

Since every word seems true to me, I guess I can quit deluding myself that I'm really an optimist who is just having a bad day!

[776281]

A little over 4 months since I joined this site. Then I had a vague feeling that the IPCC's scenarios were a little too optimistic, particularly relating to sea level rise. Since then the more I dig, the worse the picture seems.

I feel it in my fingers, I feel it in my toes
Bad news is what surrounds me, so the feeling grows.

Apologies to the Troggs.

I know my contribution isn't huge or specialized, but I do feel it is worth while. At least we are doing something.

Ignorance is bliss, until the train hits you.

[mamainaction]

Originally Posted by gaiasdaughter

From Greg's post:



Since every word seems true to me, I guess I can quit deluding myself that I'm really an optimist who is just having a bad day!

Perhaps having a Plan C would cheer you up:
http://www.communitysolution.org/plancbook.html

[gaiasdaughter]

originally posted by mamainaction
Perhaps having a Plan C would cheer you up:
http://www.communitysolution.org/plancbook.html

Looks like a great book -- I'll have to check it out. Actually, that would be my plan B -- plan A is save the world, plan B is save myself along with anyone else who is willing to make the necessary changes. Lately, I've been trying to focus on solutions as the problems can be overwhelming. And I have been more hopeful of late -- we are beginning to turn things around. And maybe, through dealing with the consequences of our oil addicition, we will come face to face with the fact that Mother Earth is our home; we cannot consume her without destroying ourselves in the process. One of the saddest things I've read recently is this

Mountaintop removal is a radical form of coal mining in which entire mountains are literally blown up -- and it is happening here in America on a scale that is almost unimaginable.

Mountaintop removal is devastating hundreds of square miles of Appalachia; polluting the headwaters of rivers that provide drinking water to millions of Americans; and destroying a distinctly American culture that has endured for generations.

I can't imagine what makes people think they have the right to destroy entire mountains just to keep our carbon addiction going a few years longer! By the way, I love your signature -- "Hope for the best and plan for the worst." Always has been good advice and even more so today!